405 Amberly Ct

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31210

$215,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,082 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $164/mo
• Annual: $1,965/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.