808 Black Cherry Dr S

St Johns, FL 32259

$209,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,268 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$398
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,661/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.26%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Durbin Creek Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #43 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 959 students, 13% FRL); Fruit Cove Middle School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #28 of 571 statewide, top 5%, 1,223 students, 6% FRL); Beachside High School (1,254 students, 5% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.7% in St Johns — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.