1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
648 sqft ·
Built 1945
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 233 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$811/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$170
Net cashflow
$295/mo
Annual
$3,540/yr
Cap rate
13.37%
Cash-on-cash
25.29%
DSCR
2.13
1% rule
1.62%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($811 rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— visible wear
Major: exterior siding
— visible wear
Major: porch
— visible wear
Major: HVAC
— basic setup
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29