9026 White Sage Loop #9026

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$216,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$563
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,350/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $60,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $216k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (16.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $216k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 51% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $216k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.