481 Hitchcock Rd

Dunlap, TN 37327

$270,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-468/mo
• Annual: $-5,610/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.42%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (47.7% below list).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#264 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sequatchie County (rural): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #95 of 139 in TN (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Sequatchie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sequatchie County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.4% in Dunlap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.