1 Road 6478 Unit 1,10, 2, 21, 25, 26, 30,

Kirtland, NM 87417

$850,000B

24 bd · 16.0 ba · 8,648 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,285
• Net cashflow: $2,722/mo
• Annual: $32,662/yr
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.72%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 24-bed/16.0-bath multifamily listed at $850k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $850k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($799k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $799k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#32 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Consolidated Schools (rural): math 8% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 29 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kirtland Elementary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #55 of 68 statewide, top 82%, 396 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Middle (430 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Central High (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 110 statewide, top 74%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen flooring — The flooring in the kitchen looks dated and could be replaced for a more modern look.
• Minor: Bathroom flooring — The bathroom flooring looks dated and could be replaced for a more modern look.
• Minor: Paint — The paint on the interior walls could be refreshed for a more updated look.
• Minor: Landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and could benefit from some maintenance and landscaping improvements.