9478 State Route 97

Callicoon, NY 12723

$399,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,785/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,135 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan West Elementary School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 571 students, 37% FRL); Sullivan West High School At Lake Huntington (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $399k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.