428 W Avenue F

Robstown, TX 78380

$20,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$155
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $242/yr
• Cap rate: 33.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.72%
• DSCR: 5.26
• 1% rule: 3.70%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($242/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($740 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#47 in TX, #1,942 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, employment F.
• Robstown ISD (town): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #757 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert Driscoll Jr Stem Academy (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 662 students, 91% FRL); Seale J H (math 16% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 521 students, 90% FRL); Robstown Early College H S (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 741 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 71% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.1% vs local median 5.2% in Robstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.