2618 Avie Dr #1

Jennings, MO 63136

$34,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $671/mo
• Annual: $8,055/yr
• Cap rate: 29.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.43%
• DSCR: 4.67
• 1% rule: 3.31%
• Cash to close: $9,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($241 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,027 of 1,115 statewide, top 93%, 256 students, 100% FRL); Rose Johnson Jennings Jr. High (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #357 of 391 statewide, top 91%, 361 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 11.9% in Jennings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.