5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,823 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,652/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$214
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$767
Net cashflow
$1,203/mo
Annual
$14,434/yr
Cap rate
11.45%
Cash-on-cash
18.42%
DSCR
1.82
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$78,372
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $280k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $110k; list at $280k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1X4AW12J58R7NF
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29