84136 Avenue 44 #788

Indio, CA 92203

$157,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$575
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,799/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $43,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $157k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (16.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Ridge Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 1,030 students, 81% FRL); Shadow Hills High (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 1,751 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 56% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?