760 E 9TH #117

San Bernardino, CA 92410

$115,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $998/mo
• Annual: $11,972/yr
• Cap rate: 16.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.18%
• DSCR: 2.65
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#661 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, cost of living F.
• San Bernardino City Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #959 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E. Neal Roberts Elementary (421 students, 95% FRL); Curtis Middle (703 students, 95% FRL); Indian Springs High (1,901 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.5% in San Bernardino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,269/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2569% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.