9156 Collins Ave #502

Surfside, FL 33154

$349,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$990
• HOA: −$699
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$915
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-912/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-912/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,358/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?