1220 Mackay Ct

Dacono, CO 80514

$250,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $683/mo
• Annual: $8,201/yr
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#267 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunder Valley Pk-8 (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 832 students, 57% FRL); Frederick Senior High School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #196 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,412 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 27% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $250k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dacono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.