1800 South Main #46

Lakeport, CA 95453

$165,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Land · Active · 364 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $636/mo
• Annual: $7,633/yr
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.52%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#925 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lakeport Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 394 students, 66% FRL); Terrace Middle (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #419 of 498 statewide, top 85%, 482 students, 66% FRL); Clear Lake High (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #674 of 1,170 statewide, top 59%, 357 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.1% in Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?