4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,102 sqft ·
Built 1959
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,303/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$484
Net cashflow
$514/mo
Annual
$6,169/yr
Cap rate
9.38%
Cash-on-cash
11.02%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#115 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Shawsheen Elementary School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #824 of 966 statewide, top 88%, 366 students, 79% FRL); Northridge High School (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #266 of 381 statewide, top 79%, 1,253 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Greeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1YEVZX11EBTJRW
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29