1300 W Olson Ave #126

Reedley, CA 93654

$75,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $930/mo
• Annual: $11,156/yr
• Cap rate: 21.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.12%
• DSCR: 3.36
• 1% rule: 2.44%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#486 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: commute D+, crime D, health & safety D.
• Kings Canyon Joint Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #288 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 437 students, 68% FRL); Reedley High (math 31% / reading 69%, grade D+, #331 of 1,170 statewide, top 28%, 1,848 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kings Canyon Joint Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 3.8% in Reedley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.