13079 Willow Grove Dr

Riverview, FL 33579

$600,000D-

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,281 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,343
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,024
• Net cashflow: $-649/mo
• Annual: $-7,789/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $600k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-649 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $487k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $485k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,875/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 258% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.