3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,658 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 157 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,702/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,546
Tax + insurance
−$492
HOA
−$200
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$567
Net cashflow
$-103/mo
Annual
$-1,241/yr
Cap rate
5.87%
Cash-on-cash
-1.50%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$82,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (5.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (8.4% below list).
It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#60 in NC, #4,746 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Vass-Lakeview Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #328 of 1,410 statewide, top 24%, 460 students, 42% FRL); Crain'S Creek Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #199 of 475 statewide, top 43%, 592 students, 51% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.2% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1YV5AAAJ8HZDSK
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29