390 Susan Constant Dr

Newport News, VA 23608

$175,000C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $218/mo
• Annual: $2,614/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hilton Elementary (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 382 students, 91% FRL); Mary Passage Middle (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #268 of 342 statewide, top 80%, 944 students, 87% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $175k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.