1407 Pine St

Hays, KS 67601

$69,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $937/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $125/mo
• Annual: $1,497/yr
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.19%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($937 rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#10 in KS, #1,501 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hays (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 169 in KS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $69k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.