4233 SW 164th Ct

Kendall West, FL 33185

$535,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Built 2013 · Townhouse · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$856
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$807
• Net cashflow: $-686/mo
• Annual: $-8,229/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-686 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($487k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#255 in FL, #4,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jane S. Roberts K-8 Center (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 625 students, 52% FRL); Lamar Louise Curry Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 804 students, 50% FRL); John A. Ferguson Senior High (math 36% / reading 64%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 4,368 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Kendall West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.