8303 Rio Spring Dr

Baytown, TX 77523

$373,940F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,544 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax + insurance: −$623
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-649/mo
• Annual: $-7,793/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $104,703

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $374k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-649 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.