5389 Rives Mt Pelia Rd

Rives, TN 38253

$175,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,705 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-434/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-434/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#393 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgemont Elementary (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #365 of 952 statewide, top 39%, 379 students, 0% FRL); Obion County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 745 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?