40 W Birch St

South Coatesville, PA 19320

$294,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,490/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $82,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#995 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Coatesville Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #457 of 539 in PA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,513 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $294k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in South Coatesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.