1717 Circulo Alameda

Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$245,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-685/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $245k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.