12398 River Valley Dr

Fishers, IN 46037

$284,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,143/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-362/mo
• Annual: $-4,349/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in IN, #898 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Hamilton Southeastern Schools (suburban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 301 in IN (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brooks School Elementary (math 69% / reading 52%, grade B-, #122 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 763 students, 24% FRL); Fall Creek Junior High (math 50% / reading 64%, grade B, #21 of 330 statewide, top 6%, 1,002 students, 14% FRL); Hamilton Southeastern Hs (math 66% / reading 85%, grade A-, #7 of 369 statewide, top 2%, 3,450 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $285k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Fishers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.