3 bd · None ba ·
4,220 sqft ·
Built 1906
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$21,375/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,429
Tax + insurance
−$2,997
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$4,489
Net cashflow
$4,461/mo
Annual
$53,528/yr
Cap rate
9.27%
Cash-on-cash
10.63%
DSCR
1.47
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$503,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $1.80M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($54k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.80M).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.74M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.74M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $155k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $142k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+17.1%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$248k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $21,375/mo this rent would consume 156% of the median local household income ($164k/yr) (locally 1780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1ZKDNC1ZWZHDAT
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29