409 E Tullos

Three Rivers, TX 78071

$95,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$121
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,179/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $58k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Three Rivers Jr/Sr H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.