1706 Erie Ave

Savanna, IL 61074

$42,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 776 sqft · Built 1929 · Other · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$159
• Net cashflow: $311/mo
• Annual: $3,738/yr
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.78%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($757 rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $42k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 6.4% in Savanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.