401 Culver Rd

Quail Creek, TX 77905

$55,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $840/mo
• Annual: $10,078/yr
• Cap rate: 24.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.44%
• DSCR: 3.91
• 1% rule: 2.81%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.