844 W Wilson Ave

Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$68,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $541/mo
• Annual: $6,497/yr
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.87%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 2.11%
• Cash to close: $19,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $68k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.