2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
450 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$916/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$42
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$192
Net cashflow
$314/mo
Annual
$3,773/yr
Cap rate
11.68%
Cash-on-cash
19.25%
DSCR
1.86
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($916 rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $839 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $355 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#205 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Mcloud (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #201 of 270 in OK (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Mcloud Es (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 214 students, 0% FRL); Mcloud Hs (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #296 of 447 statewide, top 67%, 509 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.5% in McLoud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-20MWFRC82ZQQZG
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29