780 Old River Rd

Carthage, NC 28327

$250,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,915/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $512/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($512/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#450 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carthage Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 332 students, 57% FRL); New Century Middle (math 47% / reading 55%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 625 students, 32% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $250k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.