2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,270 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Pending
· 476 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,209/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$699
HOA
−$1,103
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$674
Net cashflow
$-185/mo
Annual
$-2,221/yr
Cap rate
7.95%
Cash-on-cash
5.91%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (18.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $142k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 44% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 457 students, 72% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 771 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,209/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 980% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
CashFlowRE · CFR-212VYWACN2BEXK
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29