12807 Balm Riverview Rd Unit A

Riverview, FL 33579

$159,999B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $706/mo
• Annual: $8,477/yr
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $165k (51%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.