1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
624 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Condo
· Pending
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,975/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$113
HOA
−$398
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$415
Net cashflow
$708/mo
Annual
$8,498/yr
Cap rate
19.37%
Cash-on-cash
46.69%
DSCR
3.08
1% rule
3.04%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Randolph Heights Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 437 students, 31% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 64% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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