2505 Knox Rd

Sidney, IA 51652

$185,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-256/mo
• Annual: $-3,068/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#180 in IA, #3,220 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sidney Community School District (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #159 of 289 in IA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sidney Elementary School (math 77% / reading 62%, grade A-, #224 of 616 statewide, top 42%, 283 students, 48% FRL); Sidney High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #152 of 336 statewide, top 52%, 222 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Fremont County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fremont County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.