20806 Gridley Rd #58

Lakewood, CA 90715

$175,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,522/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $1,573/mo
• Annual: $18,875/yr
• Cap rate: 17.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.52%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#147 in CA, #4,966 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Abc Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #24 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 388 students, 77% FRL); Haskell (Pliny Fisk) Middle (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #25 of 498 statewide, top 6%, 461 students, 68% FRL); Artesia High (1,397 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 84% district-wide (-34 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Abc Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 2.5% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen appliances — The kitchen appears dated with older appliances that may need replacing.
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — The bathrooms have older fixtures that may need updating.
• Moderate: interior paint — The interior walls and ceilings show signs of wear and outdated paint that may need repainting.
• Minor: exterior siding — The exterior siding appears to be in average condition with some wear visible.