15495 Osage Hog Farm Rd

Gentry, AR 72734

$660,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,278 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax + insurance: −$484
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-2,273/mo
• Annual: $-27,273/yr
• Cap rate: 2.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.76%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $184,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $660k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (60.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (67.9% below list).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (67.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#95 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Springdale School District (urban): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #100 of 238 in AR (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $660k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$113k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 2.8% in Gentry — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.