5228 Logan Dr

Meadowbrook, AL 35242

$312,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,342/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $87,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (31.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $213k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#172 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Laurel Elementary School (math 77% / reading 86%, grade A+, #4 of 627 statewide, top 1%, 514 students, 17% FRL); Oak Mountain Middle School (math 38% / reading 72%, grade B-, #17 of 257 statewide, top 7%, 1,175 students, 25% FRL); Oak Mountain High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 1,561 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shelby County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.