5149 Spillway Manor Dr

Slidell, LA 70461

$229,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-469/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#57 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W.L. Abney Elementary School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #284 of 646 statewide, top 46%, 1,094 students, 70% FRL); St. Tammany Junior High School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #114 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 793 students, 68% FRL); Salmen High School (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 265 statewide, top 68%, 1,216 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 40% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Tammany Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.