3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,623/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$812
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$551
Net cashflow
$1,002/mo
Annual
$12,019/yr
Cap rate
14.05%
Cash-on-cash
27.71%
DSCR
2.23
1% rule
1.69%
Cash to close
$43,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#970 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-24MWQT7Q9E3BHM
· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29