3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,410 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,774/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$828
Tax + insurance
−$465
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$372
Net cashflow
$108/mo
Annual
$1,300/yr
Cap rate
7.54%
Cash-on-cash
4.45%
DSCR
1.20
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$44,212
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $158k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#201 in NY, #3,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, commute F.
Cortland City School District (town): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #368 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Randall Middle School (math 48% / reading 48%, grade C-, #305 of 729 statewide, top 42%, 263 students, 59% FRL); Cortland High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 596 students, 42% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cortland City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.2% in Cortland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-24NSCH4HVQREW4
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29