2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,521 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Townhouse
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,993/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,599
Tax + insurance
−$617
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$-642/mo
Annual
$-7,702/yr
Cap rate
3.77%
Cash-on-cash
-9.02%
DSCR
0.60
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$85,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $305k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (37.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (34.7% below list).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $192k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#934 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $107k; list at $305k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29