Wyatt Plan

Country Knolls, NY 12118

$561,400F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 956 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,593
• Tax + insurance: −$1,142
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-3,170/mo
• Annual: $-38,042/yr
• Cap rate: 0.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.83%
• DSCR: 0.12
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $191,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $561k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (59.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (63.9% below list).
• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (63.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#547 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Karigon Elementary School (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 482 students, 11% FRL); Gowana Middle School (math 57% / reading 76%, grade A-, #114 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 773 students, 15% FRL); Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$118k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 1.3% in Country Knolls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.