854 Millers Corners Rd

Mariaville Lake, NY 12010

$59,840A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $889/mo
• Annual: $10,668/yr
• Cap rate: 25.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.65%
• DSCR: 4.01
• 1% rule: 2.87%
• Cash to close: $16,755

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,178 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amsterdam City School District (town): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #546 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Snow-covered roof in winter photos
• Major: exterior siding — Weathered exterior siding
• Major: interior walls/paint — Paint appears faded and uneven
• Major: bathroom — Exposed subfloor and beams