1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
770 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 326 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,187/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$943
Tax + insurance
−$300
HOA
−$453
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$459
Net cashflow
$31/mo
Annual
$373/yr
Cap rate
6.50%
Cash-on-cash
0.74%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
1.22%
Cash to close
$50,372
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($373/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 392 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
CashFlowRE · CFR-25TAZE66CEGF34
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29