9 Poplar Dr

Brighton, NY 14625

$274,900C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,499 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$654
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-563/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (5.6% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $259k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Indian Landing Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 542 students, 22% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $275k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.