23950 15 Mile Rd

Bellevue, MI 49021

$85,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,784/yr
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.10%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#355 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bellevue Community Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #445 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 132 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 34y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Bellevue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.